Consumers Are Confused and Confusing
- Two measures of consumer confidence about which we write each month come from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan. (See below for more about the UM numbers.)
- One index measures sentiment among consumers about the economy generally. The other asks consumers to evaluate their personal financial situation.
- MarketWatch reports on a correlation between those two measures and the prospects for a recession. In brief, the greater the divergence between the two measures, the higher the likelihood of a recession.
- The divergence also is a statistically reliable indicator of the 1-year and 5-year performance of the S&P 500.
- The Conference Board and UM numbers are now farther apart than they have been 98% of the time over the last 40 years. Consumers are far more optimistic about the economy generally than about their own situation, even though unemployment remains very low and wages are risking quickly and inflation seems to have peaked.
- Chairman Powell’s “softish” landing may be wishful thinking.
But Some Data Is Clear
- With credit to the U.S. Census Bureau, we now know that smaller homes tend to have fewer bedrooms.
- You’re not astonished? Neither are we, but the data on bedrooms per new home may be worth watching in the aftermath of the latest housing slowdown especially as a ratio of the square footage of the homes.
- In 2021 (the last year for which data is available):
- 85.4% of homes having between 1,600 and 1,999 square feet had three bedrooms or fewer.
- 58.6% of homes having between 2,000 and 2,399 square feet had three bedrooms or fewer.
- One way builders may address affordability is to increase the number of bedrooms while reducing the total square footage of homes.
Home Sales, Starts, and Financing
- Price reductions and delistings data suggest disillusionment among sellers of existing homes.
- An analysis of MLS data by Redfin for the 12 weeks preceding the end of November revealed a 25% increase in the number of listings removed from MLS with 2% of all active listings during the period becoming inactive without being sold.
- Redfin also reported that price reductions also fell substantially in late November to 6% of all homes for sale in the week ending November 27.
- Meanwhile, high interest rates still are deterring buyers as evidenced by a sharp rise to 4.1 months of housing inventory on the market.
- Redfin’s data analysis offers many more details.
- Pending home sales declined in October 2022 marking a full year of diminishing home sales.
- The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index clocked in at 77.1, compared to 122.4 in October 2021.
- The PHSI was last below 80 before January 2019 (except for a brief time at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic).
- In the markets that outperformed dramatically from 2020 to early 2022, the 180-degree turn is equally dramatic.
- In Denver, Las Vegas, and the Pacific Northwest, inventory has climbed over 165% year-over-year.
- In the same time period, those three markets have seen new listings decline over 24% and closed sales drop over 42%.
- Although mortgage delinquencies remain far below the 2007 Great Recession levels that led to hundreds of thousands of foreclosures, warning signs should not be ignored.
- According to Black Knight, of all homes purchased in 2022, 5% have negative equity as a result of value decline since the date of purchase.
- Among the homes purchased in 2022, 20% have less than 10% equity.
- Of homes purchase one year ago or earlier, less than 1% have negative equity and less than 5% have under 10% equity.
- For another perspective on mortgage risk, Milliman, Inc. delivered its quarterly assessment.
- Part of the assessment involves measuring the volume of purchase and refinance mortgages because the latter typically have a lower risk profile.
- "Year over year, total mortgage acquisition volume is down 62% for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Refinance activity is driving most of the decline and is down 87% year-to-date."
- As a result, the Milliman Mortgage Default Index rose to 3.54% for 2022 Q3 mortgages from 3.02% for mortgages originated in Q2.
- The monthly survey of home builders by the National Association of Home Builders includes questions about sales incentives and discounting.
- In November 2022, 36% of single-family builders offered a price reduction, averaging 6%.
- In July 2022, those numbers were 13% and 5%, respectively.
- From May 2007 to March 2008, the numbers ranged from 48% to 59% and from 7% to 10%.
- A similar pattern presents with respect to other sales incentives. Since May 1995, the percentage of builders offering sales incentives always was above 50% until July 2022 when the percentage bottomed at 43%.
- In November, the ratio had risen to 59%, still well below the 2007-2008 average of over 70% and the December 2008 high of 86%.
- The four incentive types used by 20% or more of builders are payment of closing costs, options at reduced or no cost, mortgage rate buy-down, or payment of mortgage origination points.
- Mortgage application volume continues to decline to the surprise of only those who have been Netflix binging for a year.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association measured a 1.9% overall decline in mortgage applications week-to-week (adjusted for the Thanksgiving holiday).
- Year-to-year, refinances were down 86% and purchase mortgages were down 40%.
- The average loan amount for purchase mortgages dropped to the January 2021 level of $387,300.
- The Freddie Mac survey of mortgage rates clocked the 30-year rate average at 6.33% and the 15-year average at 5.76%. Both are more than twice the average rates one year ago.
- A few weeks ago, we explored one source of high mortgage-rates -- the spread between those rates and the prevailing 10-year Treasury Bond rate. Zonda's chief economist reiterates our explanation with a bit more detail.
- The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index was created in 2011 to forecast near-term future mortgage originations.
- In October 2022, the HPSI fell to a record low 56.7.
- Despite little optimism among prospective home purchasers, the index rose a bit over 1% to 57.3 in November.
- Despite reasonably equivalent access to data, 20 different firms offer forecasts for home prices ranging from a 5.4% rise (realtor.com) to a 20+% decline. Every one of these predictions is possible but the divergence of possibilities makes all the predictions useless.
- Instead of attempting to assess which is most likely, we will do better to consider how a range of possibilities impact the longer-term performance of an investment in a single-family home.
- If prices decline over any time period by 10% from the June 2022 high, we will see home prices return to the September 2021 level, which was about 100% above the post-Great Recession price trough in January 2012 -- slightly more than an 8% average annual increase. If the 10% trough occurs by December 2024, home prices still will have increased an average of 5.2% annually from 2012 to 2024.
- If prices decline over any time period by 20% from the June 2022 high, we will see home prices return to the March 2021 level, which was about 80% above the post-Great Recession price trough in January 2012 -- about a 6.75% average annual increase. If the 20% trough occurs by December 2024, home prices still will have increased an average of 4.2% annually from 2012 to 2024.
- In other words, measuring home prices at a moment in time or over a short period of time is deceptive. Timing the housing market is a fool's errand. Buying a home should be about quality of life, not investment return. If investment return is a priority, investing in the S&P 500 index is likely a much better choice.
- High-end homes may be a bright(ish) spot in a housing market otherwise in the doldrums. Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) reported a 21% increase in revenue and 13% increase in closings year-over-year for the quarter ending October 31.
- However, the results reflect a backlog of orders placed before mortgage rates rose past 7%. Net new contracts declined 56% year-over-year.
- A Realtor.com analysis of single-family home affordability identified these ten markets as best positioned for sales growth in 2023:
- Hartford, CT
- El Paso, TX
- Louisville, KY
- Worcester, MA
- Buffalo, NY
- Augusta, GA
- Grand Rapids, MI
- Columbia, SC
- Chattanooga, TN
- Toledo, OH
- Make sure to send us your new address when you relocate.
Residential Rents and Construction
- The RealPage Analytics November 2022 rent report reveals a continuing downward trend in apartment rents, occupancy, and new tenant traffic.
- Asking rents nationally declined 0.59% (the largest monthly decrease in the history of the RealPage Analytics, except at the beginning of the pandemic).
- Markets with asking rent declines over 1% included Raleigh, Charlotte, Austin, Seattle, Phoenix, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Denver.
- Occupancy dropped again to 95.1%, accumulating to a 240 basis point decline since January 2022.
- An historically high construction backlog of multi-family housing will continue to put pressure on rents and occupancy rates.
- New tenant traffic was the lowest for a November since 2013.
Other News and Data
- We eschew forecasts, but some data can suggest the future of housing in
- The monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report revealed stronger than expected wage growth among hourly employees.
- Private, non-farm hourly earnings rose 0.6% from October and 5.1% over the preceding year.
- Among production and non-management employees, the wage increase was even stronger at 0.7% from October to November.
- These data suggest strongly that inflation is still strongly rooted in the economy.
- Among all non-government employees, the opportunity to work remotely hit 10.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The highest rates of remote work opportunity were measured in computer and mathematics (52.5%) and legal (48.8%) jobs.
- The Producer Price Index (wholesale prices) for November 2022 rose 0.3% against economists' forecast of a 0.2% increase. Wholesale price inflation is down significantly from a 2022 high over 11% annualized, but the November data still puts wholesale inflation above 7%.
- Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey climbed sharply in November as gasoline prices declined, the stock market rebounded intermittently, and inflation seemed to slow.
- The index jumped to 59.1 from 56.8 in the prior month (a record low for the survey).