2023 February 17

Investor home purchases have plummeted. They have the cash but are on the sidelines watching prices decline. Will prices fall enough to have made the waiting worthwhile?

2023 February 10

Lots of data this week on single-family lot supply, multi-family permitting volume, and the formation of stars in distant galaxies.

2023 February 03

The new jobs number startled economists, analysts, investors, and most importantly, the Federal Reserve Bank with an actual increase more than twice the consensus forecast.

2023 January 20

Lumber prices spiked in the second week of January despite a slow and still slowing housing market. Suppliers have down-sized dramatically and are anticipating at least a modest recovery as mortgage rates slowly fall.

An Honest Forecast, It’s a Coin-Toss

Less frequently than half the time, the actual GDP for a year falls within the range of consensus forecasts by economists. In other words, a coin-toss would necessarily be more accurate.

2023 January 13

Inflation seems to be slowing, but housing costs are outpacing price increases in other goods and services. Rents are declining. For-sale inventory is rising because of slowing sales.

2023 January 06

The Internet begat real estate technology firms hoping to compete with the traditional brokerage industry. One avenue for competition is the gathering and analysis of housing data. We now have multiple sources of data but also uncertainty and often disagreement.

The Lightning and Thunder of Rent Data

New research and thinking about residential rent inflation reveals a more accurate methodology for better measuring the current rental rate direction and velocity.

What a Difference a Day Makes!

The 30-year mortgage rate dropped 30 basis points on January 6, 2023 perhaps based on optimism from data showing a deceleration in hourly wage growth.

2022 December 30

Ringing out the year in housing with a fact and a forecast. The housing market is “down” relative to an extraordinary up. We predict another up albeit less extraordinary.